This picture represents temperature anomalies that are currently in place (December 23rd 2019)
“The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.”
A lot of attention has been on Australia, but something strange is happening in the US as well as in Russia.
The accuracy of the predictions for Australia and what is currently playing out is an indication that what has been predicted for South Africa has a STRONG likelihood of materializing.
Here is what the IPCC report says about Southern Africa:
“The southern African region is projected to be a climate change hotspot in terms of both hot extremes (Figures 3.5 and 3.6) and drying (Figure 3.12). Indeed, temperatures have been rising in the subtropical regions of southern Africa at approximately twice the global rate over the last five decades (Engelbrecht et al., 2015).”
NOTE: The 2019 Emissions Gap Report indicates that we are currently on track for a 3.2°C global temperature increase. This means we have to look at the worst case scenario. There is NO INDICATION that we are taking any action to avert this scenario. The results will be CATASTROPHIC for this region.
1️⃣ WARMING OF 1.5°C OR LESS
💧 Reductions in water availability (medium confidence) 🔥 Increase in number of hot nights and longer more frequent heatwaves (high confidence) ☠️ High risks of increased mortality from heatwaves 🍽 High risk of undernutrition in communities dependent on dryland agriculture and livestock
2️⃣ WARMING OF 1.5°C - 2°C
🌧💧Large reduction in rainfall and water availability (medium confidence) 🔥☠️ Further increases in number of hot nights and longer and more frequent heatwaves (high confidence) associated increases in risks of increased mortality from heatwaves compared to 1.5°C warming (high confidence) 🍽 Higher risks of undernutrition in communities dependent on dryland agriculture and livestock
3️⃣ WARMING OF 2°C - 3°C (CURRENT TRAJECTORY)
🌧💧 Large reductions in rainfall and water availability (medium confidence) 🔥☠️ Drastic increases in the number of hot nights, hot days and heatwave duration and frequency to impact substantially on agriculture, livestock and human health and mortality (high confidence) 🍽 Very high risks of undernutrition in communities dependent on dryland agriculture and livestock
This is a #ClimateEmergency and we have to do EVEYTHING in our power to stop burning as much fossil fuels as possible IMMEDIATELY.
🌍Become Climate Conscious 👩🏻🎓Become Carbon Literate 🗳️Vote for change 🌱Switch to a plant-based diet 🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can) ☀️Switch to renewable energy ✈️Fly less (the worst transport choice)
As the climate crisis unfolds and begins to impact people and carbon literacy improves behaviour begins to change.
”In Germany, which has suffered record-breaking heatwaves and a drop in Rhine water levels that halted barge shipments, caused fuel shortages and disrupted power production, the environment has become the most pressing issue among voters” (From German Air Travel Slump Points to Flight Shame)
EVERYTHING that causes carbon emissions is going to come under scrutiny with increasing urgency. As a result, if there is one thing you need to do to ensure the resilience of your career or business it’s to find a way ASAP to de-couple the value you bring from the need to burn fossil fuels.
We are ALL going to need to evolve to low carbon or no carbon lifestyles.
December 17, was the hottest day ever recorded in Australia: 40.9°C... that was the national AVERAGE temperature. Some places were far hotter.
As CO2 levels continue to rise, the globe continues to get hotter. There are some places that are going to become uninhabitable leading to climate migration.
Watching the unfolding scenes in Pretoria and elsewhere (See my SA Weather Twitter List for videos and other updates) is a stark reminder of what is going to become the new normal as the planet continues to heat up. In the case of this area in South Africa, extreme temperatures (heatwaves) and extreme precipitation events like we are seeing now.
Using what is known as the Clausius-Clapeyron equation as a guide we can expect that with each 1°C of global warming the earth’s atmosphere will hold 7% more water.
We are DEFINITELY going to experience more of these extreme rainfall events!
I have been profoundly and deeply impacted by Greta Thunberg’s choice to sail from Europe to the US and back. It is a powerful message from a teenager to all of us.
Nikki Henderson has eloquently articulated the impact this has had on her, co-piloting the boat on this return journey. Her thoughts are profound.
If we trust the science, and there is ABSOLUTELY no reason not to, (the debate about what is causing the climate crisis is long over see http://theconsensusproject.com) then we are needing to urgently make serious and profound sacrifices to the way we live in order to prevent a global catastrophe.
Although we need massive systemic change to the global economy and how we generate our energy, these changes can start with us individually and the choices we make everyday as she has shown.
Greta’s journey, the perils she faced and the sacrifices she has made has been incredibly inspirational.
If I believe the science, and I do, what is my excuse for not acting in harmony with this?
(I am quoting Nikki Henderson’s comments here in full in case the Facebook post disappears for some reason.)
“Reflections from the North Atlantic:
For what feels like the first time in the entire journey, we are pointing directly towards Lisbon. We have 100 NM left to run before we can officially announce ‘mission complete’. The mission being - to safely sail Greta to Europe in time for her to attend the COP25 climate conference in Madrid.
Riley and I have spoken many times this trip about the ‘mission’. About feeling like we are now part of something significant. Like this crossing had real purpose beyond the normal “go from point ‘a’ to point ‘b’” which of course, whilst so simple, is one of the true beauties of travelling by sea: purpose.
Reading back through my messages from - unbelievably - only 23 days ago, we were discussing whether I would be the best person to help him and Elayna with the trip. I wrote to him and advised he make whatever decision was best for their safety - for there was “something bigger at stake than any of us”. I ... we ... felt a pull to work together for this bigger ‘thing’. There were good reasons to choose someone else - for example, the fact that I had to fly was not ideal considering what the trip represented, even though I did buy carbon offsets. What ultimately brought us together was the pull of the adventure, yes, but also a deeper common interest - a shared purpose ...
We have had many conversations on-board about the climate emergency - about how bleak the situation is. There have been some heated discussions too - is it too late? Should we still hope? Can we feel positive? Is it constructive to be afraid? To name a few.
Every discussion for me has been informative, and interesting. I’ve learned in much greater depth about the issues at hand - and had some ideas about how to contribute to fixing them. This was one reason I agreed to be part of this and support the crew - so in my view a successful 3 weeks!
One of my favourite conversations was with Svante and Greta yesterday. We were considering how the sailing trip that we have just done - a voyage that Greta decided was necessary for her to take - is so symbolic. On departing the USA we sacrificed any control or strict agenda. We surrendered to the ocean and to Mother Nature. We relied on science - the weather forecast - to guide us. We supported science with our own instinct for survival. We gained a unique perspective of how small we are in this big world. We compromised many of at least a Westerner’s life luxuries - plenty of food, running water, fast internet access - to name a few. Despite this, we are arriving feeling richer and more fulfilled than we left.
Reflecting on what this trip was about - the bigger ‘mission’- this conversation feels extremely relevant.
Whilst it could be misinterpreted this way, this trip was not about telling people what to do, or how to live. It was not about Greta or any of us travelling in the most sustainable way possible. If it was, there were probably slightly better options - although none perfect. There may have been skippers who could have joined the boat in two days without flying. There may have been boats without a diesel engine as a back up for power. There may have been vessels that could monitor their carbon footprint more closely.
This trip was about the bigger mission. It was for us to enable Greta - one of our influencers - our role models - to travel in the way that she felt was most in line with the youth climate movement message: To highlight the need for big structural change to fight the climate emergency. To make the point that there isn’t a sustainable way to travel yet, and there needs to be.
‘Big structural changes’ - no one knows exactly what that will entail. But I think it’s so beautiful that just by choosing to sail across the Atlantic, we demonstrated that it is possible to adopt ‘big structural changes’ into our lives - even if just for three weeks. These changes surely correspond with some of the changes necessary to solve the climate crisis: trusting science, setting aside differences and working together, sacrificing some of life‘s indulgences, surrendering control, compromising, staying optimistic - finding a shared sense of purpose. By sailing across the Atlantic we have shown what it is possible to achieve if you work with nature, and not against her.
In making it to Lisbon by the power of the wind, we have in a small way, contributed to the youth climate movement. We had ‘walked the walk’ and ‘talked the talk’ so to speak. Perhaps that was our shared purpose after all … ?
It has been a privilege to have helped Riley and Elayna sail Greta and her father safely to Europe, and ultimately to her family and her home. Being part of this project is something I’ll remember for the rest of my life. It’s been an opportunity to deepen my understanding of the climate emergency; to make five new friends; and best of all, to enjoy and share the purity, the perspective, and the peace that sailing across an ocean provides.”
We have to stop burning fossil fuels and we have to do it NOW.
The scientist working with the data say:
“If damaging tipping cascades can occur and a global tipping point cannot be ruled out, then this is an existential threat to civilization. No amount of economic cost–benefit analysis is going to help us. We need to change our approach to the climate problem. In our view, the evidence from tipping points alone suggests that we are in a state of planetary emergency: both the risk and urgency of the situation are acute.”
Governments need to act. Businesses need to act. Individuals need to act.
🌍Become Climate Conscious 👩🏻🎓Become Carbon Literate 🗳️Vote for change 🌱Switch to a plant-based diet 🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can) ☀️Switch to renewable energy ✈️Fly less (the worst transport choice)
1. Internal corporate documents show that the fossil fuel industry has known about the reality of human-caused climate change for decades. Its response was to actively orchestrate and fund denial and disinformation so as to stifle action and protect its status quo business operations.
2. As the scientific consensus on climate change emerged and strengthened, the industry and its political allies attacked the consensus and exaggerated the uncertainties.
3. The fossil fuel industry offered no consistent alternative explanation for why the climate was changing—the goal was merely to undermine support for action.
4. The strategy, tactics, infrastructure, and rhetorical arguments and techniques used by fossil fuel interests to challenge the scientific evidence of climate change—including cherry picking, fake experts, and conspiracy theories—come straight out of the tobacco industry’s playbook for delaying tobacco control.
These key points reflect the position of experts studying climate denial and the history of fossil fuel interests, based on thousands of pages of documented evidence.
Early in November this short story aired on the BBC:
It tells the story of an area just 200km or so from where we are.
URGENT: Nqweba Dam in Graaf-Reinet, Eastern Cape is empty. We urge water users to adhere to water restrictions and intensity water saving measures. #SaveWaterpic.twitter.com/V5i5L3oPnf
The team at Columbia University will be updating this seasonal forecast on Nov 15. I will have to check the rainfall data in our area for Oct. but the last forecast indicated a drier period than normal for the month. I think that’s what the data will bear out. But for the period Nov > Jan from this forecast predicts above normal temps and above normal rainfall for our area. We will see how this plays out. We have been experiencing more than normal high winds for the past few days.
Further north of us it’s predicted to be warmer and drier. At the same time we have a Antarctic Sudden Warming event playing out which is impacting parts of Australia.
“The Bureau of Meterology is predicting the strongest Antarctic warming on record, likely to exceed the previous record of September 2002.“
My new post: with Trump pulling the US out, other large economies falling short of the targets they pledged, & old fights over finance resurfacing, the Paris agreement in danger of stalling out or even falling apart in the 2020s. So argues a new paper. https://t.co/gG7NXYMOMf
It is very evident when we look around us that the luxuries of the modern world have been built on fossil fuels and they system we live in encourages the pursuit of these luxuries.
However, we now know from the latest science that we need to as a matter of urgency decouple from fossil fuels immediately if we want to have a remote chance of delaying and hopefully avoiding a global catastrophe.
But moving from the dependence on fossil fuel energy to sustainable energy in my view will be a painful transition one where in the medium term need to make sacrifices while we figure out how to build better lives without the need for fossil fuels.
This interim period is what is going to be painful.
What follows may be a really insignificant example, but it does illustrate what we are going to need to get used to. I own a luxury German car which I bought before I became Carbon Literate. This car produces 196g CO2/km. The family has a second much smaller car that produces 88g CO2/km.
For almost all of my daily and weekly runs I now choose to drive the the car that emits less CO2. But I do miss the luxury and smoother ride of the bigger but dirtier car and its those luxuries we will have to let go of with increasing frequency as we attempt to halt the trajectory we are on.
Of course electric cars are available but our options in South Africa are limited. Until such time as we get more options at various price points, the only option is to drive less and if hanging to drive choosing the option the less polluting option.
Obviously all this is way more than just driving. There are choices to be made about air travel, what food to eat and consumption in general.
We need a system change and that process is going to require sacrifice. Will we be willing to make those? Time will tell
Since becoming aware of the current science around climate change and the rapid approach of a global catastrophe on our current trajectory I have thought a lot about denial.
We have the science, we are literally beginning to experience the effects of a changing climate and yet there is no mass action to reverse the emission trajectory we are on.
It’s business as usual. We keep driving, we keep flying, we keep consuming. We keep burning fossil fuels. We keep opening new coal mines, drill for more oil and gas.
There seems to be a massive disconnect between what the science is telling us an what we do.
The only conclusion I able to reach is that the majority of us are in a state of deep denial.
“Denial of that sort might be embedded in our DNA. Some scientists think it’s the primary trait that distinguishes humans from other animals. We know we are going to die, so we develop beliefs in an afterlife, or we just don’t think about it at all. And in a similar way, we don’t dwell on the fact that human activity has changed the atmosphere, and that conditions could get very bad in the near future.”
Are we going to stay in denial until it’s too late?
From Wyoming to Australia, Coal’s Heartlands Are Retreating
The world is going through a remarkable energy transition as cheaper renewables push the fossil fuel into its death throes.
“Any industry that harms its consumers, pollutes the planet and depends for its survival on political support is living on borrowed time, though. The declines to coal-fired power on multiple continents are the death throes of a technology that’s rapidly heading towards obsolescence. Humanity will still struggle to reduce our emissions fast enough to avoid devastating climate change — but don’t be surprised if this industry falls even faster than people have dared to hope.”
This is the amount of CO2 (assuming each bag weighs 23kg) that each passenger on a return flight from Johannesburg to London is responsible for. Imagine leaving the airport with your suite case and these in tow.
The SA weather service has issued this advisory for the north-eastern provinces (Thursday > Monday): Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Free State, North West.
Climate change weather models have predicted that we will see more of these events in southern Africa and with greater frequency and intensity.
This is NOT a drill.
We are on a dangerous life-threatening trajectory if we don’t find a way to immediately stop spewing CO2 into the atmosphere!
🌍Become Climate Conscious 👩🏻🎓Become Carbon Literate 🗳️Vote for change 🌱Switch to a plant-based diet 🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can) ☀️Switch to renewable energy
These are the temperature records broken in South Africa during the month of September:
This is a climate emergency!
🌍Become Climate Conscious 👩🏻🎓Become Carbon Literate 🗳️Vote for change 🌱Switch to a plant-based diet 🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can) ☀️Switch to renewable energy ✈️Fly less (the worst transport choice)
Scientists have predicted this for years and now it’s unfolding before our eyes. 45 million people are now at risk in Africa alone not to mention the devastation being seen on other living creatures. The pictures are too heartbreaking to share.
Based on the carbon emission trajectory we are on this situation is going to get MUCH worse. What we are seeing is the effects of a of 0.5°C rise in global temperatures. We are on track for a 2° - 4°c rise!
We are staring a catastrophe of global proportions in the face.
We have to decouple from fossil fuels immediately. Business as usual is not an option!
🌍Become Climate Conscious 👩🏻🎓Become Carbon Literate 🗳️Vote for change 🌱Switch to a plant-based diet 🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can) ☀️Switch to renewable energy ✈️Fly less (the worst transport choice)