I am REALLY glad I hit the pause button with respect to Facebook

“The real problem is that Facebook profits partly by amplifying lies and selling dangerous targeting tools that allow political operatives to engage in a new level of information warfare. Its business model exploits our data to let advertisers custom-target people, show us each a different version of the truth and manipulate us with hyper-customized ads — ads that, as of two weeks ago, can contain blatantly false and debunked information if they’re run by a political campaign. As long as Facebook prioritizes profit over healthy discourse, they can’t avoid damaging democracies.”— Yaël Eisenstat ex Facebook Head of Global Elections Integrity Ops

This quote from the piece in the Washington Post entitled I worked on political ads at Facebook. They profit by manipulating us. 

How Finland plans to go fossil fuel free by 2035

In this interesting paper entitled Finnish energy system can be made 100% fossil free the case is made that Finland can infact achieve this with an energy mix made up of clean fuels.

Finland’s incoming prime minister Antti Rinne thinks they can get there by 2035 making it one of the fastest targets ever set. 

Bravo Finland! 

There is discontent at Facebook — with good reason

Anyone who has been following the tech news will know that Facebook’s leadership stance on various subjects is not sitting well with many of the employees at the company. Rightly so.

For example check out this piece from the NYT from this past week Dissent Erupts at Facebook Over Hands-Off Stance on Political Ads

As a result there are folk at Facebook who want out.

Case in point check out this thread:

there are people ready to leave facebook right this second, but don’t know where to go.

reply here if you’re hiring.

— EricaJoy (@EricaJoy) November 2, 2019

Is this a pre-election stunt in the UK?

Time will tell if this is a pre-election stunt or whether this is a true course correct in the UK.

UPDATE:

From this it would seem it is exactly that!

Outragous: just hours after ending the threat of #fracking for gas, the UK Government has effectively approved the UK's first deep coal mine in over 30 years. The company plans to mine 2.5 million tonnes of coal every year for 50 years. #ClimateEmergencyhttps://t.co/JFmFme0Pa7

— Ric Lander 🐞 (@ricjl) November 3, 2019

Fracked — Knysna Film Festival

Yesterday I got to watch Fracked at the Knysna Film Festival a stark reminder that we have to keep fossil fuels in the ground.

A look at the future where the world is 4°C or more warmer landed the message against fracking powerfully.


We have access to the science to ignore what it tells us is highly irresponsible!

A sign of things to come

Back in 2010 the Western Cape Government commissioned a study to determine the impact of sea level rise on the coastal areas under its jurisdiction. One of the areas that was looked at was Knysna.

This map from the report:

The red line indicates a 2.5m above mean sea level, the orange 4.5m and the blue 6.5m. From the models they concluded the following:

“The town of Knysna is protected from storm surges by the narrow width and rocky nature of The Heads, although the risk of flooding and back flooding of the estuary is high and a large portion of the town is vulnerable to inundation. Thesen’s Island, Leisure Island, Brenton, Hunter’s Home golf course, the portion of Knysna town centre south of the N2, the sewerage treatment works, the edge of Belvidere and the Knysna River floodplain up to the head of the estuary all fall below the 2.5 mamsl floodline (see Figure 3-3), which has been breached in the past.”

This past week the town experienced a Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT) combined with a storm and some server winds causing a 2m+ tidal rise. This was the result (Pics Credit: Nichelle Swanepoel)

Considering the data available in 2010 regarding arctic glacier melting, the report concluded that:

“By 2100, extreme sea level events of this nature may occur every 2 weeks on spring highs with the combination of a small to moderate storm”

This will prove devastating to the road, water and sewage infrastructure not to mention the hundreds of millions of rands of stranded assets that would in direct line of impact. Based on data from 2019 we now know that the arctic melt Is happening faster than was predicted and therefore the time line associated with events like this will shrink meaning we could see this scenario play out by 2030.

This is just one tiny example of what will happen to most cities and towns that are built along the ocean. Take a look at this piece from the New York Times entitled Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows

 

 

Weather advisors for South Africa - October 28 2019

The SA Weather Service just issued these advisories and warnings:

⚠️Warmest forecasted towns for today Monday (28 October 2019):
Punda-Maria- 44C
Phalaborwa- 44C
Skukuza- 44C
Giyani- 43C
Musina- 43C
Thohoyandou- 42C
⚠️High discomfort values⚠️
- Take care and drink a lot of water.
- Take care of elderly, children and animals.

— SA Weather Service (@SAWeatherServic) October 28, 2019 

⚠️Warning⚠️:28/10/2019 11h00 TO:28/10/2019 23h00- Gale force W to SW winds are expected between the coastal areas of Cape Point (60-70km/h, gusting 75-84km/h) and Port Alfred today (southern coast of Western and Eastern Cape Provinces).

— SA Weather Service (@SAWeatherServic) October 28, 2019

⚠️Warning⚠️:28/10/2019 11h00 TO:28/10/2019 23h00- Gale force W to SW winds are expected between the coastal areas of Cape Point (60-70km/h, gusting 75-84km/h) and Port Alfred today (southern coast of Western and Eastern Cape Provinces).

— SA Weather Service (@SAWeatherServic) October 28, 2019 

⚠️Advisory⚠️:
Hot and humid weather will result in extremely uncomfortable conditions in the Lowveld of Mpumalanga and Limpopo today (Monday).;

— SA Weather Service (@SAWeatherServic) October 28, 2019

The signs are everywhere: New climate models predict a warming surge.

Will we be willing to make the sacrifices to live a low carbon life?

It is very evident when we look around us that the luxuries of the modern world have been built on fossil fuels and they system we live in encourages the pursuit of these luxuries. 

However, we now know from the latest science that we need to as a matter of urgency decouple from fossil fuels immediately if we want to have a remote chance of delaying and hopefully avoiding a global catastrophe. 

But moving from the dependence on fossil fuel energy to sustainable energy in my view will be a painful transition one where in the medium term need to make sacrifices while we figure out how to build better lives without the need for fossil fuels.

This interim period is what is going to be painful.

What follows may be a really insignificant example, but it does illustrate what we are going to need to get used to. I own a luxury German car which I bought before I became Carbon Literate. This car produces 196g CO2/km.  The family has a second much smaller car that produces 88g CO2/km.

For almost all of my daily and weekly runs I now choose to drive the the car that emits less CO2. But I do miss the luxury and smoother ride of the bigger but dirtier car and its those luxuries we will have to let go of with increasing frequency as we attempt to halt the trajectory we are on.

Of course electric cars are available but our options in South Africa are limited. Until such time as we get more options at various price points, the only option is to drive less and if hanging to drive choosing the option the less polluting option.

Obviously all this is way more than just driving. There are choices to be made about air travel, what food to eat and consumption in general. 

We need a system change and that process is going to require sacrifice. Will we be willing to make those? Time will tell

(See How localization can solve climate change for a look at what system change could look like)

Also see this Sky News piece entitled How to lead a low carbon life

Are we in denial?

Since becoming aware of the current science around climate change and the rapid approach of a global catastrophe on our current trajectory I have thought a lot about denial.

We have the science, we are literally beginning to experience the effects of a changing climate and yet there is no mass action to reverse the emission trajectory we are on.

It’s business as usual. We keep driving, we keep flying, we keep consuming. We keep burning fossil fuels. We keep opening new coal mines, drill for more oil and gas.

There seems to be a massive disconnect between what the science is telling us an what we do.

The only conclusion I able to reach is that the majority of us are in a state of deep denial.

Which is why this piece by in Bloomberg caught my eye We’re all in denial about climate change

“Denial of that sort might be embedded in our DNA. Some scientists think it’s the primary trait that distinguishes humans from other animals. We know we are going to die, so we develop beliefs in an afterlife, or we just don’t think about it at all. And in a similar way, we don’t dwell on the fact that human activity has changed the atmosphere, and that conditions could get very bad in the near future.”

Are we going to stay in denial until it’s too late?

Is Facebook censoring criticism of itself in the News Feed?

This morning over on Facebook I published this status update. There were no links associated with the update, I only added these when saving the content to my blog here.

Within minutes I received this notification:

And when clicking on the continue button this explanation:

I did not tag anyone, or send this as a message to anyone or add any links. It was just a text update. So why was it flagged as “Spam” - none of the points raised in the update are not already freely available in mainstream media.

My only conclusion is that Facebook is censoring criticism of itself. I think they have helped me make up my mind about whether I should continue my participation on the platform. 

I have lost my faith in the integrity of Facebook’s Leadership

Scandals keep swirling around Facebook. They just don’t seem to end. Just head over to Google and search “Facebook scandals” to get an idea of these. 
This past week I watched Mark Zuckerberg be less than forthcoming about their involvement in and knowledge of Cambridge Analytica. I think we will discover in time if he lied under oath or not and to be honest its not looking good. To make matters worse, it has just been reported that they ok’ed the previous owners of Cambridge Analytica as a trusted news source on their platform.

Something is wrong here and it is not sitting well with me.
The more investigative journalists dig into the company the worse it seems to get. It would seem that their leadership is unable or unwilling to course correct, all in pursuit of the mighty ad dollar or worse.
At first my opinion on this was similar to why I keep driving a car. Cars are dangerous and literally kill millions of people every year. Yet I still drive because at the moment the benefits outweigh the risks for me, also, quite frankly how else would I get around? I have kept using Facebook using similar reasoning — the benefits outweigh the risks I told myself.
But I am not so sure that reasoning works for me anymore. While I may at this point pretty much be forced to use a car, I certainly am not forced to use Facebook. There are alternatives.
Facebook and it’s business model, it’s shocking irresponsibility with user data, its inability or unwillingness to stop the spread of misinformation, is causing REAL harm. Worse is its apparent unwillingness to accept responsibility and make the sweeping changes necessary to stop the harm. It’s beginning to tear at the very fabric of society.
How different is this from Shell or BP, who have know for decades about the harm their products are causing to the environment and people, but have continued polluting and expanding anyway? How different is this to the meat industry which despite knowing about the horrendous treatment of animals continues anyway?
As a single individual, there is little I can do to get these companies to change course. However, it IS my choice as to whether I will support them and whether I want to be associated with them. If I won’t work for an oil company, or a meat company, or a cigarette company, why would I continue to be a willing participant in Facebook, feeding their algorithms and business model, while at the same time having serious misgivings and serious legitimate questions about their ethics and the real world harm they are causing and their trying to cover it all up?
As a result of all this I am going to take some time to get clarity on these issues and also to see if anything is going to reverse the trajectory they are on. Until then I am pausing my participation on their platform.
If you want to stay connected with me I an active elsewhere on the social web eg on LinkedIn & Twitter. Almost everything I publish is also available on my blogs at FutureWork IQ and here. Remember to subscribe to these if you use an RSS reader like Feedly.

If we are going to make it coal must fall

Check out this piece on Bloomberg

From Wyoming to Australia, Coal’s Heartlands Are Retreating

The world is going through a remarkable energy transition as cheaper renewables push the fossil fuel into its death throes.

“Any industry that harms its consumers, pollutes the planet and depends for its survival on political support is living on borrowed time, though. The declines to coal-fired power on multiple continents are the death throes of a technology that’s rapidly heading towards obsolescence. Humanity will still struggle to reduce our emissions fast enough to avoid devastating climate change — but don’t be surprised if this industry falls even faster than people have dared to hope.”

Carbon footprint for a return flight to London

This is the amount of CO2 (assuming each bag weighs 23kg) that each passenger on a return flight from Johannesburg to London is responsible for. Imagine leaving the airport with your suite case and these in tow.

We need to fly less.

Another more intense heatwave to hit South Africa

The SA weather service has issued this advisory for the north-eastern provinces (Thursday > Monday): Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Free State, North West.

Climate change weather models have predicted that we will see more of these events in southern Africa and with greater frequency and intensity. 

This is NOT a drill.

We are on a dangerous life-threatening trajectory if we don’t find a way to immediately stop spewing CO2 into the atmosphere!

🌍Become Climate Conscious
👩🏻‍🎓Become Carbon Literate
🗳️Vote for change
🌱Switch to a plant-based diet
🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can)
☀️Switch to renewable energy

Take a look at the temperature records broken in September

These are the temperature records broken in South Africa during the month of September:

This is a climate emergency!

🌍Become Climate Conscious
👩🏻‍🎓Become Carbon Literate
🗳️Vote for change
🌱Switch to a plant-based diet
🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can)
☀️Switch to renewable energy
✈️Fly less (the worst transport choice)

The signs are everywhere — we are in a climate emergency

Scientists have predicted this for years and now it’s unfolding before our eyes. 45 million people are now at risk in Africa alone not to mention the devastation being seen on other living creatures. The pictures are too heartbreaking to share.

Based on the carbon emission trajectory we are on this situation is going to get MUCH worse. What we are seeing is the effects of a of 0.5°C rise in global temperatures. We are on track for a 2° - 4°c rise!

Below is the situation currently playing out in Africa:

We are staring a catastrophe of global proportions in the face.

We have to decouple from fossil fuels immediately. Business as usual is not an option!

🌍Become Climate Conscious
👩🏻‍🎓Become Carbon Literate
🗳️Vote for change
🌱Switch to a plant-based diet
🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can)
☀️Switch to renewable energy
✈️Fly less (the worst transport choice)

South Africa is facing a water shortage catastrophe

By 2030 there will not be enough water in South Africa for all its people.

Never mind any of the reported mismanagement issues. That simply exasperates what is coming because of global heating.

Climate models all indicate that we are going to see increased temperatures and less rain. Climate refugees are REAL possibility in our future.

This is deadly serious.

Also see: South Africa is facing a water crisis

First heatwave warning for parts of South Africa

The SA Weather Service has issued a warning for heatwave conditions in Gauteng over the weekend into early next week.

Did you know: A heatwave is declared when temperatures are 5°C or more above the average for the hottest month of the year, for 3 or more days.

All climate models predict that these events will increase with frequency and duration in South Africa as we race toward 2°C global temperature rise.

Food and water security will come under severe threat. This is not a drill.

We need to immediately start the process to decouple everything we do from fossil fuels.

🌍Become Climate Conscious
👩🏻‍🎓Become Carbon Literate
🗳️Vote for change
🌱Switch to a plant-based diet
🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can)
☀️Switch to renewable energy

It’s not like they didn’t know

Scientists: (2009) Global heating is going to cause the polar ice to melt and it will lead to sea level rise in Miami!

Gov. Rick Scott: (2011) we are banning the use of the words “climate change,” its all a left wing hoax!

Senators: (2019) OMG! We are having sunny day flooding! It’s not even raining! Where is this water coming from?

Scientists: Sea level rise...

Senators: Why is the sea level rising? Where is the water coming from!?

Scientists: Remember in 2009? The heating earth is melting the polar ice caps. That’s where the water is coming from.

Senators: We better do something! Miami is under water!

Scientists: 🙄 but in 2009...

(Source: Miami Herald Florida GOP leaders finally utter ‘sea level rise,’ lament ‘lost decade.’)

Carbon Literacy — Quick Guide

This Quick Guide is for the two most common forms of transportation - passenger vehicles and air travel.

🚘 For passenger vehicles we will use the equation 120g CO2/km traveled (Please note this is an average, the car you drive may produce more grams of CO2/km or less depending on the make and engine size)

15km = 1.8kg
30km = 3.6kg
45km = 5.4kg
60km = 7.2kg
100km = 12kg

✈️ Domestic Air Travel (SA - using OR Tambo International as originating airport for return economy flight. For context imagine collecting your 20kg bag at baggage collect plus your CO2 emissions in 20kg bags)

ORT > Durban = 137.8kg CO2 (Your 20kg bag + 7 additional 20kg bags)
ORT > Bloemfontein = 177.8kg CO2 (20kg + 9)
ORT > East London = 200.6kg CO2 (20kg + 10)
ORT > Port Elizabeth = 228.1kg CO2 (20kg + 11)
ORT > George = 229.4kg CO2 (20kg + 11)
ORT > Cape Town = 270.7kg CO2 (20kg + 13)

🛬 International Air Travel (Direct flights - for these we will use 23kg bags)

ORT > Sydney = 1,757.4kg CO2 (Your 23kg bag + 76 additional 23kg bags)
ORT > Dubai = 848kg CO2 (23kg + 37)
ORT > London = 1025.8kg CO2 (23kg + 45)
ORT > New York = 2,111kg CO2 (23kg + 92)

Note: There is a big PR push from airlines with regard to Carbon Offsets. Scientists who are examining these offset schemes are concerned. Here is some of the research and thinking on the subject.

Corsia: The UN’s plan to ‘offset’ growth in aviation emissions after 2020

An (Even More) Inconvenient Truth Why Carbon Credits For Forest Preservation May Be Worse Than Nothing

The inconvenient truth of carbon offsets

🌍Become Climate Conscious
👩🏻‍🎓Become Carbon Literate
🗳️Vote for change
🌱Switch to a plant-based diet
🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can)
☀️Switch to renewable energy

✈️Fly less (the worst form of transport)