The Data Is Screaming At Us

This picture represents temperature anomalies that are currently in place (December 23rd 2019)

“The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.”

A lot of attention has been on Australia, but something strange is happening in the US as well as in Russia.

From Reuters: Moscow wonders where winter has gone as temperatures hit 133-year high

Climate Model Accuracy Means South Africa *REALLY* NEEDS TO PAY ATTENTION

The accuracy of the predictions for Australia and what is currently playing out is an indication that what has been predicted for South Africa has a STRONG likelihood of materializing. 

Here is what the IPCC report says about Southern Africa:

“The southern African region is projected to be a climate change hotspot in terms of both hot extremes (Figures 3.5 and 3.6) and drying (Figure 3.12). Indeed, temperatures have been rising in the subtropical regions of southern Africa at approximately twice the global rate over the last five decades (Engelbrecht et al., 2015).”

NOTE: The 2019 Emissions Gap Report indicates that we are currently on track for a 3.2°C global temperature increase. This means we have to look at the worst case scenario. There is NO INDICATION that we are taking any action to avert this scenario. The results will be CATASTROPHIC for this region.

1️⃣ WARMING OF 1.5°C OR LESS

💧 Reductions in water availability (medium confidence)
🔥 Increase in number of hot nights and longer more frequent heatwaves (high confidence)
☠️ High risks of increased mortality from heatwaves
🍽 High risk of undernutrition in communities dependent on dryland agriculture and livestock

2️⃣ WARMING OF 1.5°C - 2°C

🌧💧Large reduction in rainfall and water availability (medium confidence)
🔥☠️ Further increases in number of hot nights and longer and more frequent heatwaves (high confidence) associated increases in risks of increased mortality from heatwaves compared to 1.5°C warming (high confidence)
🍽 Higher risks of undernutrition in communities dependent on dryland agriculture and livestock

3️⃣ WARMING OF 2°C - 3°C (CURRENT TRAJECTORY)

🌧💧 Large reductions in rainfall and water availability (medium confidence)
🔥☠️ Drastic increases in the number of hot nights, hot days and heatwave duration and frequency to impact substantially on agriculture, livestock and human health and mortality (high confidence)
🍽 Very high risks of undernutrition in communities dependent on dryland agriculture and livestock

This is a #ClimateEmergency and we have to do EVEYTHING in our power to stop burning as much fossil fuels as possible IMMEDIATELY.

🌍Become Climate Conscious
👩🏻‍🎓Become Carbon Literate
🗳️Vote for change
🌱Switch to a plant-based diet
🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can)
☀️Switch to renewable energy
✈️Fly less (the worst transport choice)

Everyone is beginning to wake up

As the climate crisis unfolds and begins to impact people and carbon literacy improves behaviour begins to change.

”In Germany, which has suffered record-breaking heatwaves and a drop in Rhine water levels that halted barge shipments, caused fuel shortages and disrupted power production, the environment has become the most pressing issue among voters” (From German Air Travel Slump Points to Flight Shame)

EVERYTHING that causes carbon emissions is going to come under scrutiny with increasing urgency. As a result, if there is one thing you need to do to ensure the resilience of your career or business it’s to find a way ASAP to de-couple the value you bring from the need to burn fossil fuels. 

We are ALL going to need to evolve to low carbon or no carbon lifestyles.

Majuba Coal Power Plant Emissions - Staggering

This picture of the fire at the Majuba coal power plant yesterday, South Africa’s second largest, is a graphic example of how dirty coal energy is.

Dramatic picture of the fire at @Eskom_SA's Majuba power station today pic.twitter.com/jkS3M3xlbF

— Chris Yelland (@chrisyelland) December 18, 2019

While eyes are on Majuba its good to remember that:

At full capacity this plant’s six units burn 56,000 tonnes of coal per day, supplied via a central conveyor system from the coal stockyard.

Every tonne of coal burned results in 1,892kg of CO2

So lets do the math:

56,000 tonnes x 1,892kg CO2 = 105,952,000kg CO2 

That is 106 million kilograms of CO2 being spewed into the atmosphere EVERY SINGLE DAY

This is completely unsustainable - we are going to kill everything.

South Africa — we are on the frontlines

From the Wall Street Journal: A Fine for a Flush: Drought Leaves Southern Africa High and Dry

“Southern Africa is one of the hot spots world-wide that is already experiencing extreme weather events. It may be the new normal. What determines how much these events will impact communities is not only the event itself, drought in this case, but also the ability of marginalized communities to adapt.”— Felix Horne, Human Rights Watch 

Remember:

Burning fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) to generate electricity, ever car drive, every flight etc is spewing CO2 and Methane into the atmosphere which is warming the planet which is leading to events like this.

If we do not URGENTLY cut back on these activities, this way of generating power, things are going to get MUCH WORSE. 

This coming decade is going to be a defining moment for the human race. If we continue as normal, continue with business as usual we are endangering the exsistance of all life on earth. 

Yes it’s that serious

The Thermometer Doesn’t Lie - The Climate Emergency Is Real

December 17, was the hottest day ever recorded in Australia: 40.9°C... that was the national AVERAGE temperature. Some places were far hotter. 

As CO2 levels continue to rise, the globe continues to get hotter. There are some places that are going to become uninhabitable leading to climate migration.

In Australia it’s already happening: Climate driving interstate arrivals to Tasmania as tree changers to escape 'unbearable' heat

What happens to people who can’t afford to move?

If you still have to be on Facebook for whatever reason...

Facebook is not going to change its news delivery and algorithms. It is more pragmatic to tell your friends and relatives to not get political news from there than to hope Facebook will change. Tell them how targeted digital propaganda works; encourage them to get news elsewhere.

— Sarah Kendzior (@sarahkendzior) December 13, 2019

This coming decade we have some VERY tough choices to make — inform yourself of the issues

As we step into the next decade we are going to need to make some very tough and brave choices related to how the economy works, our own consumption and how we live on our only home, earth.

To make those choices we need to be informed. So I have collated the data that should help you understand everything at play.

IMPORTANT BACKGROUND

As a starting point it is CRUCIAL to be clear of this fact: We, by burning fossil fuels (coal, gas & oil,) are causing life-threatening global warming, currently on a trajectory to increase the global temperature by 3.2°C - which will have CATASTROPHIC consequences to every living thing on earth.



This conclusion - that we are causing the warming - is reached from a review of 21 years worth of peer-reviewed scientific papers (12,465) on “global warming” or “global climate change.” The review of this data identified over 4,014 abstracts authored by 10,188 scientists that stated a position on human-caused global warming. Among those 4,014 abstracts, 97.1% endorse the consensus that humans are causing the warming we are experiencing. Among the 10,188 scientists, 98.4% endorse the same consensus. (See the research here: Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literatures)

THE LATEST SCIENCE

Here are the latest, 2019 peer-reviewed scientific papers outlining our predicament:





🔥 Global Warming of 1.5°C

⛰ Climate Change and Land

🌊 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

⛽️ Emissions Gap Report 2019

🧪 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2019

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN 2020 — 2030

Based on the above science there is only ONE WAY to avert a global, life-threatening disaster. 

🛢️ WE HAVE TO *RAPIDLY* DECARBONIZE OUR ECONOMY IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS

> Every Government is going to need to take steps to do so
> Every Business is going to need to take steps to do so

> Every Individual is going to need to take steps to do so

Here is what all three groups above need to do as a matter of urgency:

🌍 Become Climate Conscious
👩🏻‍🎓Become Carbon Literate (see above papers)
🗳️Vote for change (De-carbonized energy)
🌱Switch to plant-based diets
🚘Drive less or not at all (switch to EV where possible)
☀️Switch to renewable electrical energy
✈️Fly less or not at all (the worst transport choice)

What will your business look like de-carbonized?
What will our day-to-day lives look like? 

These questions need answering and the sooner the better.

More extreme precipitation events on the horizon

Watching the unfolding scenes in Pretoria and elsewhere (See my SA Weather Twitter List for videos and other updates) is a stark reminder of what is going to become the new normal as the planet continues to heat up. In the case of this area in South Africa, extreme temperatures (heatwaves) and extreme precipitation events like we are seeing now.

In this paper published in May entitled Global and Regional Increase of Precipitation Extremes Under Global Warming the scientists show why this is happening.

Using what is known as the Clausius-Clapeyron equation as a guide we can expect that with each 1°C of global warming the earth’s atmosphere will hold 7% more water.

We are DEFINITELY going to experience more of these extreme rainfall events!

Why we have to de-grow Aviation

⚡️ COAL ELECTRICITY: We have alternatives in hydro, wind & solar
⛽️ PETROL/DIESEL VEHICLES: We have alternatives in electric vehicles powered by renewables
✈️ AVIATION: no alternatives

As a result of this, and until we can find an alternative, WE HAVE TO fly less or not at all. There is no other choice.

Here are some ideas from a recent paper on how this transition will happen:

1️⃣ Eliminating tax exemptions: Kerosene & Ticket tax, VAT & Carbon Tax
2️⃣ Making Excessive Flyers Pay: Frequent Flyer Levy & Air Miles Levy
3️⃣ Setting Limits on Flights
4️⃣ Red Line For Airports: Moratoria on New Infrastructure and Scaling Down of Airports
5️⃣ Fostering Alternatives
6️⃣ Institutional Change of Travel Policies

You can read the full report here: Degrowth of Aviation—Reducing Air Travel in a Just Way

(When this conversation comes up there is often the comment “but we can just buy carbon offsets, which means we can keep flying” Please see the report The Illusion of Green Flying)

I have been deeply impacted by Greta Thunberg’s travel choice

I have been profoundly and deeply impacted by Greta Thunberg’s choice to sail from Europe to the US and back. It is a powerful message from a teenager to all of us.

Nikki Henderson has eloquently articulated the impact this has had on her, co-piloting the boat on this return journey. Her thoughts are profound.

If we trust the science, and there is ABSOLUTELY no reason not to, (the debate about what is causing the climate crisis is long over see http://theconsensusproject.com) then we are needing to urgently make serious and profound sacrifices to the way we live in order to prevent a global catastrophe.

Although we need massive systemic change to the global economy and how we generate our energy, these changes can start with us individually and the choices we make everyday as she has shown.

Greta’s journey, the perils she faced and the sacrifices she has made has been incredibly inspirational.

If I believe the science, and I do, what is my excuse for not acting in harmony with this?

(I am quoting Nikki Henderson’s comments here in full in case the Facebook post disappears for some reason.)

“Reflections from the North Atlantic: 

For what feels like the first time in the entire journey, we are pointing directly towards Lisbon. We have 100 NM left to run before we can officially announce ‘mission complete’. The mission being - to safely sail Greta to Europe in time for her to attend the COP25 climate conference in Madrid. 

Riley and I have spoken many times this trip about the ‘mission’. About feeling like we are now part of something significant. Like this crossing had real purpose beyond the normal “go from point ‘a’ to point ‘b’” which of course, whilst so simple, is one of the true beauties of travelling by sea: purpose. 

Reading back through my messages from - unbelievably - only 23 days ago, we were discussing whether I would be the best person to help him and Elayna with the trip. I wrote to him and advised he make whatever decision was best for their safety - for there was “something bigger at stake than any of us”. I ... we ... felt a pull to work together for this bigger ‘thing’. There were good reasons to choose someone else - for example, the fact that I had to fly was not ideal considering what the trip represented, even though I did buy carbon offsets. What ultimately brought us together was the pull of the adventure, yes, but also a deeper common interest - a shared purpose ... 

We have had many conversations on-board about the climate emergency - about how bleak the situation is. There have been some heated discussions too - is it too late? Should we still hope? Can we feel positive? Is it constructive to be afraid? To name a few.  

Every discussion for me has been informative, and interesting. I’ve learned in much greater depth about the issues at hand - and had some ideas about how to contribute to fixing them. This was one reason I agreed to be part of this and support the crew - so in my view a successful 3 weeks! 

One of my favourite conversations was with Svante and Greta yesterday. We were considering how the sailing trip that we have just done - a voyage that Greta decided was necessary for her to take - is so symbolic. On departing the USA we sacrificed any control or strict agenda. We surrendered to the ocean and to Mother Nature. We relied on science - the weather forecast - to guide us. We supported science with our own instinct for survival. We gained a unique perspective of how small we are in this big world. We compromised many of at least a Westerner’s life luxuries - plenty of food, running water, fast internet access - to name a few. Despite this, we are arriving feeling richer and more fulfilled than we left. 

Reflecting on what this trip was about - the bigger ‘mission’- this conversation feels extremely relevant. 

Whilst it could be misinterpreted this way, this trip was not about telling people what to do, or how to live. It was not about Greta or any of us travelling in the most sustainable way possible. If it was, there were probably slightly better options - although none perfect. There may have been skippers who could have joined the boat in two days without flying. There may have been boats without a diesel engine as a back up for power. There may have been vessels that could monitor their carbon footprint more closely. 

This trip was about the bigger mission. It was for us to enable Greta - one of our influencers - our role models - to travel in the way that she felt was most in line with the youth climate movement message: To highlight the need for big structural change to fight the climate emergency. To make the point that there isn’t a sustainable way to travel yet, and there needs to be. 

‘Big structural changes’ - no one knows exactly what that will entail. But I think it’s so beautiful that just by choosing to sail across the Atlantic, we demonstrated that it is possible to adopt ‘big structural changes’ into our lives - even if just for three weeks. These changes surely correspond with some of the changes necessary to solve the climate crisis: trusting science, setting aside differences and working together, sacrificing some of life‘s indulgences, surrendering control, compromising, staying optimistic - finding a shared sense of purpose. By sailing across the Atlantic we have shown what it is possible to achieve if you work with nature, and not against her.  

In making it to Lisbon by the power of the wind, we have in a small way, contributed to the youth climate movement. We had ‘walked the walk’ and ‘talked the talk’ so to speak. Perhaps that was our shared purpose after all … ? 

It has been a privilege to have helped Riley and Elayna sail Greta and her father safely to Europe, and ultimately to her family and her home. Being part of this project is something I’ll remember for the rest of my life. It’s been an opportunity to deepen my understanding of the climate emergency; to make five new friends; and best of all, to enjoy and share the purity, the perspective, and the peace that sailing across an ocean provides.”

The Scientist have done their job - now its time for us to do ours!

The latest piece in Nature entitled Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against is crystal clear: Business as usual is NOT an option.

We have to stop burning fossil fuels and we have to do it NOW.

The scientist working with the data say:

“If damaging tipping cascades can occur and a global tipping point cannot be ruled out, then this is an existential threat to civilization. No amount of economic cost–benefit analysis is going to help us. We need to change our approach to the climate problem. In our view, the evidence from tipping points alone suggests that we are in a state of planetary emergency: both the risk and urgency of the situation are acute.”

Governments need to act.
Businesses need to act.
Individuals need to act.

🌍Become Climate Conscious
👩🏻‍🎓Become Carbon Literate
🗳️Vote for change
🌱Switch to a plant-based diet
🚘Drive less (switch to EV if you can)
☀️Switch to renewable energy
✈️Fly less (the worst transport choice)

Eyes Wide Open

It’s been over a month that I have paused publishing content on Facebook. Primarily because of having lost faith in the leadership of the company as explained here.

The problem is still this:

In the case of Facebook, they offer a “free” platform, but in exchange for “free”, tracks your every move on the internet, whether that be the sites you visit, comments you make, photos you publish, places you visit etc. and then creates a digital profile of you which is then is sold to anyone willing to pay to micro target you with advertising or political messaging.

In a recent interview Tristan Harris explained it this way when answering the question as to whether Facebook or Google listen to your conversations via the phone microphone:

“Inside of a Google server or a Facebook server is a little voodoo doll, avatar-like version of you, like a model of you. And I don’t have to listen to your conversations because I’ve accumulated all the clicks – the nail filings and hair clippings are all the clicks and likes you’ve ever made – and it makes this voodoo doll act more like you. So, all I have to do is simulate what conversations the voodoo doll is having, and I know the conversation you just had without having to listen to the microphone.”

You can watch the fascinating and important conversation this quote was taken from here:

When the Cambridge Analytica (CA) scandal broke (which Facebook is still embroiled in) we discovered that using Facebook data, CA had access to some 5,000 data points from your “voodoo doll avatar.” That is a massive amount of personal data that they have sucked up! 

In fact when you download your data off of Facebook you are met with this piece of screen:

The above helps you understand just how much data they have on you.

The second issue with Facebook, as things stand at the moment, is that they refuse to ban political entities from using your “voodoo doll avatar” to micro target you with political messaging, and worse still, they are also not concerned about the accuracy of this political messaging leading to the real possibility of the spread of false information. (See Facebook exempts political ads from ban on making false claims)

Also see this piece in the Washington Post Tech firms under fire on political ads are trying every response but the right one

This situation led to this observation from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

"Tell your parents not to get their opinions on Facebook," says @AOC pic.twitter.com/t179ukb4r6

— Bloomberg TicToc (@TicToc) November 24, 2019

So with eyes wide open I am returning to publishing content here with the understanding that by doing so I am helping fill out my “voodoo doll avatar” and that I at the same time have to be really careful about the veracity of the information being shared on Facebook. I am also returning with the knowledge that enough eyes are now focused on Facebook to ensure that their bad acting will be surfaced and challenged.

I now walk the Facebook streets like I would a dangerous neighborhood, paying attention to everything around me. Eyes wide open.

Over the last week or so my thinking has been heavily influenced by Sir Tim Burners Lee as outlined in his Richard Dimbleby Lecture a few days ago. I highly recommend the time it will take to listen to this lecture and the reason Sir Tim gives for there being a need to be a course correct.

This lecture preceded the release of the Contract for the web which outlines 9 Principles, 3 each for Governments, Companies and Citizens. This will be guiding my actions on the web going forward.

(Interestingly both Google and Facebook have endorsed the contract. Whether they live up to their endorsement remains to be seen.)

Going forward I am extremely excited by the developments around projects like Solid and WT:Social which is really pointing the way to an alternative to the Google/Facebook world we are often forced to participate in.
This past month has helped me remove Facebook as a critical part of my online presence, both personal and for my business, making it easier to simply use the platform as a name placeholder or delete my accounts altogether if that becomes necessary.

As always you can also find me active on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Fossil Fuel Industry Disinformation Campaign Exposed

This report (America Misled — How the fossil fuel industry deliberately misled Americans about climate change) by researches at George Manson, Harvard and Bristol Universities made these key findings:

1. Internal corporate documents show that the fossil fuel industry has known about the reality of human-caused climate change for decades. Its response was to actively orchestrate and fund denial and disinformation so as to stifle action and protect its status quo business operations.

2. As the scientific consensus on climate change emerged and strengthened, the industry and its political allies attacked the consensus and exaggerated the uncertainties.

3. The fossil fuel industry offered no consistent alternative explanation for why the climate was changing—the goal was merely to undermine support for action.

4. The strategy, tactics, infrastructure, and rhetorical arguments and techniques used by fossil fuel interests to challenge the scientific evidence of climate change—including cherry picking, fake experts, and conspiracy theories—come straight out of the tobacco industry’s playbook for delaying tobacco control.

These key points reflect the position of experts studying climate denial and the history of fossil fuel interests, based on thousands of pages of documented evidence.

What a great alternative to traditional wind turbines

Check out the details of the Wind Tree here

Graaf-Reinet- A South African Climate Emergency Story

Early in November this short story aired on the BBC:

It tells the story of an area just 200km or so from where we are. 

URGENT: Nqweba Dam in Graaf-Reinet, Eastern Cape is empty. We urge water users to adhere to water restrictions and intensity water saving measures. #SaveWater pic.twitter.com/V5i5L3oPnf

— Water&SanitationRSA (@DWS_RSA) November 7, 2019

The climate crisis is unfolding in our back yard...

Africa Seasonal forecast (Nov 2019 > Jan 2020)

The team at Columbia University will be updating this seasonal forecast on Nov 15. I will have to check the rainfall data in our area for Oct. but the last forecast indicated a drier period than normal for the month. I think that’s what the data will bear out.

But for the period Nov > Jan from this forecast predicts above normal temps and above normal rainfall for our area. We will see how this plays out. We have been experiencing more than normal high winds for the past few days.

Further north of us it’s predicted to be warmer and drier.

At the same time we have a Antarctic Sudden Warming event playing out which is impacting parts of Australia.

“The Bureau of Meterology is predicting the strongest Antarctic warming on record, likely to exceed the previous record of September 2002.“

More on why I hit the pause button on Facebook

A bit more key evidence from third IGC.@carolecadwalla calls out Mark Zuckerberg's failure to answer questions including as recently as weeks ago asked by @AOC.
"The entire story Facebook has told about Cambridge Analytica including who knew what, when is crumbling." pic.twitter.com/uPuxALeZ9m

— Jason Kint (@jason_kint) November 8, 2019

This issues raised on this thread over on Twitter is the reason I have hit the pause button on Facebook and am considering the implications and strategy of leaving the platform altogether.

We are in deep DEEP trouble and its beginning to feel that we are not going to make it

Climate crisis: 11,000 scientists warn of ‘untold suffering’ https://t.co/LitQJesZwZ

— Guardian Environment (@guardianeco) November 5, 2019

My new post: with Trump pulling the US out, other large economies falling short of the targets they pledged, & old fights over finance resurfacing, the Paris agreement in danger of stalling out or even falling apart in the 2020s. So argues a new paper. https://t.co/gG7NXYMOMf

— David Roberts (@drvox) November 5, 2019